The Knife/Glove Trade-Up Update: What It Means for the CS2 Skin Market - And Why It Might Be Good Long-Term
Valve just dropped one of the most game-changing updates in Counter-Strike history:
You can now trade up five Covert skins into a knife or glove from the same collections.
This new mechanic has already sent waves through the market - glove and knife prices have dropped 40–50% overnight, and everyone’s asking:
“Are my skins doomed?”
Let’s take a deep breath, look at what actually changed, and explore why this could be healthy - even bullish - for the long-term CS2 economy.
What the update actually does
Before the patch:
You could only trade up 10 skins → 1 higher-tier skin (but never to knives/gloves).
Knives and gloves were only obtainable from cases.
Now:
You can trade up 5 Covert (red) skins → 1 Gold item (knife or glove)
The result depends on the collections of the inputs.
Example: five Covert skins from Recoil, Dreams & Nightmares, and Snakebite can yield knives/gloves from those collections.
In simple terms:
👉 You can craft knives and gloves now
How big is the impact?
It’s estimated that there are roughly 5-8 million knives & gloves in circulation today.
CSFloat estimates there are about 20 million existing Covert skins, plus maybe 9 million more if you convert all lower tiers up.
Even if every single Covert was used for trade-ups, that’d create ~5.8M new Golds, doubling total supply.
Realistically, though:
Likely only a fraction of players will burn their Covert inventories.
Many valuable reds are too expensive to risk.
So the true increase is likely 20% - 30% - not 100%.
Why prices fell — and why they won’t stay there
The first 24 hours after any major supply shock = chaos. As of writing we are on day 2 and still seem like casuals, investors, and panic sellers rush to exit the market.
But here’s the key: demand hasn’t disappeared.
There are still tens of thousands of players who want to own their first knife - and now they finally can.
That’s why short-term volatility ≠ long-term collapse.
Think of it like a stock split:
More supply, yes.
But also more accessibility, more activity, and more liquidity.
Guesstimation on Supply & Prices
We’ve modeled the new system in a simple supply-demand framework (see below).
Even in extreme cases, prices flatten after ~−60%, not −100%. Our “damped elasticity” model accounts for the fact that collectors, traders, and new buyers step in when prices drop too far.
Feel free to join the discussion on X here.
Why this might be great for Counter-Strike long-term
More affordable entry point: Thousands of players have never owned a knife or glove. Lower prices will onboard a new generation of collectors.
Healthier trade volume: Cheaper knives = more trading activity = more life in the economy. We expect marketplaces, like GamerPay, to see increased volume even if prices are lower.
Revival of mid-tier skins: Covert and Classified skins now have real utility again - they’re no longer just inventory fillers but ingredients for crafting knives. Imagine all the new content from creators from now on!
Speculation opportunities: Some collections will become “meta” for crafting desirable golds (e.g., Pandoras, Vices or Butterfly gems). Smart traders will adapt fast and find value in under-priced reds.
Market maturity: This is Valve’s way of stabilizing the top-end. Knife/glove prices had become inaccessible — this brings balance, not destruction.
Our take at GamerPay
Yes, prices dropped sharply. But the fundamentals of skin collecting - rarity, aesthetics, and flex - remain intact. If anything, this update:
Makes CS2’s economy more sustainable,
Brings new energy to trade-ups and crafting,
And reminds everyone that the market is alive and evolving.
We are of course very sorry for the traders and people that have lost quite a lot of money the past days, but we believe that for the private individual, the casual, this will mostly be a positive thing on the long run.
We’ll be watching collection-specific trends closely in the coming weeks - and will share more thoughts once we gathered such.
TL;DR
Knives & gloves can now be crafted using 5 x Covert skins.
Supply doubles only if everyone trades up everything - which won’t happen.
Expect lower entry prices, more trades, and new market dynamics.
Short-term chaos ≠ long-term death. On the contrary - long term this could greatly benefit the whole skin scene.
What do you think?
Are you planning to trade up to a knife or glove, or hold your Covert stash?
Join the discussion here and make sure to follow GamerPay on X (Twitter).
